Notre Dame
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
2  Molly Seidel SR 18:55
9  Anna Rohrer FR 19:26
140  Rachel DaDamio FR 20:09
205  Karen Lesiewicz SR 20:20
251  Annie Heffernan FR 20:28
325  Ashlyn Rambo SO 20:38
696  Sydney Foreman SO 21:12
1,030  Toni Finnane FR 21:36
1,147  Ella Fennelly FR 21:46
National Rank #11 of 339
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.5%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 10.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 43.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 95.2%


Regional Champion 19.3%
Top 5 in Regional 99.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Molly Seidel Anna Rohrer Rachel DaDamio Karen Lesiewicz Annie Heffernan Ashlyn Rambo Sydney Foreman Toni Finnane Ella Fennelly
Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational (Gold) 10/02 1237 21:27 21:39
Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/02 507 19:25 19:47 20:20 20:33 20:29 20:59 21:29
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 568 18:53 19:26 20:24 20:43 21:11 21:45
ACC Championships 10/30 389 18:55 19:26 20:02 19:55 21:02 21:27 21:39 21:31
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/13 352 19:10 19:23 20:05 20:17 20:17 20:27 22:26
NCAA Championship 11/21 342 18:46 19:16 20:03 20:18 20:20 20:29





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.5% 11.6 352 0.1 1.3 2.3 3.0 4.0 4.8 6.1 6.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.2 6.7 5.7 5.3 4.4 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.3 81 19.3 43.6 29.1 6.5 1.2 0.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Molly Seidel 100% 1.7 30.7 27.8 13.3 7.7 5.5 3.6 2.7 2.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Anna Rohrer 100% 16.6 0.1 1.0 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.0
Rachel DaDamio 99.5% 118.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Karen Lesiewicz 99.5% 150.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Annie Heffernan 99.5% 170.2
Ashlyn Rambo 99.5% 193.8
Sydney Foreman 99.5% 241.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Molly Seidel 1.0 92.4 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Anna Rohrer 2.3 1.8 40.2 25.0 14.6 7.1 4.1 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rachel DaDamio 17.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.5 5.0 4.3 4.6 4.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.3 2.8
Karen Lesiewicz 25.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.6 4.0 3.4 3.6 3.7
Annie Heffernan 32.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.9 3.1
Ashlyn Rambo 42.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3
Sydney Foreman 77.3 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 19.3% 100.0% 19.3 19.3 1
2 43.6% 100.0% 43.6 43.6 2
3 29.1% 99.9% 2.9 5.0 7.7 6.8 4.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.0 3
4 6.5% 100.0% 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 6.5 4
5 1.2% 80.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 5
6 0.3% 23.1% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 99.5% 19.3 43.6 2.9 5.3 8.2 7.8 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 62.9 36.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Syracuse 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 94.1% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 93.0% 1.0 0.9
Vanderbilt 92.1% 2.0 1.8
Utah 63.8% 1.0 0.6
Purdue 53.2% 1.0 0.5
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 39.3% 2.0 0.8
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 2.0 0.4
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 2.0 0.2
Texas A&M 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 2.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Penn 1.8% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 2.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.7
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 18.0